Corn Market Analysis for 9-2-10
September Corn finished up 3/4 at 433, 4 1/2 up from the low and 1/4 off the high. December Corn settled up 3/4 at 447 1/2. This was 1/2 off the high and 4 1/2 up from the low.
December corn traded mostly lower throughout the day session before staging a late recovery to marginally higher on the day. The late gain came in conjunction with late rallies in soybeans and on a day that saw continued evidence of strong export demand for US corn. However, traders note that demand is being counterbalanced by the start of harvest in the US. The USDA announced a sale of 120,000 tonnes of corn to Egypt this morning for delivery during the 2010/11 crop marketing year. This week’s export sales were well above trade expectations overall, although sales remained light to moderate for soft red winter wheat. All-wheat sales for the expired 2009/10 crop marketing year came in at minus 28,500 tonnes, but new crop 2010/11 sales came in at a whopping 1,686,700 tonnes for a combined total of 1,658,200. As of August 26, cumulative corn sales stand at 20.4% of the USDA forecast for 2010/2011 versus a 5 year average of 18.5%. Sales need to average 782,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast.
November Rice settled 0.095 higher at 11.43, 0.095 up fromt he low and equal to the high.
Wheat Market Commentary Report for 9-2-10
September Wheat ended up 5 1/4 at 680 3/4, 1/4 up from the low and 6 1/4 off the high. December Wheat closed 5 higher at 713 3/4. This was 7 3/4 up from the low and 9 1/4 off the high.
December wheat traded higher overnight and then extended its gains into the start of the day session. The market traded below the early highs into early afternoon on a lack of fresh buy orders in futures and more neutral outside markets in comparison to yesterday. Traders said that support came from another very strong export sales total on the USDA’s weekly Export Sales report along with an announcement by Vladimir Putin this morning that Russia will extend its ban on grain exports until after next year’s summer/fall harvest is complete. The ban had previously been scheduled to run through December 31st, 2010. India reportedly bid on an export tender to Bangladesh again today after that tender had been rescheduled. Traders are uncertain as to whether India will end its ban on wheat exports due to its large domestic surpluses of rice and wheat. This week’s net export sales for wheat came in above the highest trade estimate at 1,024,100 tonnes, all for the current 2010/11 marketing year. The biggest buyers were Nigeria, Turkey, Mexico and Egypt. As of August 26, cumulative wheat sales stand at 43.1% of the USDA forecast for 2010/2011 versus a 5 year average of 43.7%. Sales need to average 466,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. Japan bought 138,857 tonnes of wheat on its regular weekly tender. Tunisia bought 50,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat on a scheduled tender.
December Oats finished up 4 1/4 at 284. This was 5 up from the low and 1/2 off the high.
Soybean Complex Market Recap for 9-2-10
November Soybeansended 3 1/2 higher at 1009, 8 1/4 up from the low and 1 1/2 off the high.
December Soybean Oil settled 0.08 higher at 40.2, 0.09 off the high and 0.38 up from the low.
December Soymeal finished 2.5 higher at 296.1. This was 3.5 up from the low and 0.1 off the high.
November soybeans saw choppy trade in a relatively narrow range today. The market moved higher overnight but sold off to start the day session. However, sell orders dried up amid quiet trade and the November contract recovered to finish the day with a modest gain. Meal and oil also recovered into the close with meal leading the way. This week’s export sales came in slightly below trade expectations in soybeans and soy oil and about in line in meal. Net sales for soybeans came in at 900 tonnes for the 2009/10 marketing year and 613,000 for the crop year that started on September 1st. This left total sales at 613,900 tonnes. Sales need to average 448,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net meal sales came in at 156,000 tonnes for the current marketing year and 222,400 for next year for a total of 378,400. The 2010/11 marketing year starts one month later for meal and oil on October 1st. Sales need to average 171,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast for the remainder of the crop year. Net oil sales came in at 7,900 tonnes for the current marketing year and 4,400 for next year for a total of 12,300. Sales need to average 2,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. The USDA announced a sale of 100,000 tonnes of soybeans to Egypt this morning for delivery during the 2010/11 crop marketing year. This is the second such sale in recent weeks, and it points to the recent overall improvement in the US competitive position in the big import markets of the Middle East. The Census Bureau released its soy oil stocks as of the end of July. They stood at 3.548 billion pounds, down slightly from the previous month’s total of 3.553 billion but up from 3.330 at the same point last year.
After reading today’s recap,traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum. The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports. Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it. In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much. Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices. Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.
Andy Waldock circulates this blog. Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, analyst, broker, asset manager and traderfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio. Therefore, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his family, or his clients in any commodity future market discussed. The blog is meant for educational purposes and to develop a discussion among those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets employ a high degree of leverage and commodity trading may not be suitable for all investors. There is considerable risk in investing in commodity futures. If you are interested in reading other published articles, commenting on his publications or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.
The daily commentaries provide an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, a recap of each commodity’s traded price activity, and a look ahead at the schedule for the next day. CME Group provides market commentaries for soybeans, corn, wheat, gold and silver. The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.